Scottish referendum.

Scottish referendum.

143 posts
15 Feb 2014
jivago
Photographer
jivago
tonycsm

Why should Osborne go into details...he simply said NO currency union......I'm afraid your first minister is deluded if he thinks differently.




Osborne may think that shouting 'Fag - Fag' like he was still at some toffy Public School will bully everyone into coming running. It won't! - He simply cannot say no to a curency union, becuase it is not in his gift to do that.

Sterling is a shared asset - Get over it!

Posted 17 Feb 2014
Stibnite
Photographer
Stibnite
cziiki
Osborne has no actual say in whether there would be a currency union. He is the chancellor of what will be the previous government repeating a position he is getting from the Treasury with advice from the Band of England and of course with a political eye on the effect of his statement. Negotiations after a Yes vote will decide. That's simple fact. The first pound note was printed in Scotland, and it is a currency of both countries. The physical location of the central bank does not define the ownership of the currency.
What symbol you put on a piece of paper does not define a currency, the weight of the bank and the economy behind it does. The power behind the pound is the Bank of England in the same way the power behind the euro is Germany. Currency union is not about the pound it's about joint economic decisions and policy, that is simply not realistic with an independent Scotland. I think the people of Southern Europe may now realise there was more to the euro than printing a few notes.
Posted 17 Feb 2014
pmeu
Photographer
pmeu
I'm all for Scotland gaining independence but it is depressing to hear that the potential leaders of Scotland would even want to have a currency union. Spend years and years whining that the powers that be set monetary policy with little regard to Scotland's needs (which I would agree is true) and their solution is to tie themselves into a currency union where their needs and requirements would have absolutely zero sway over policy. Be brave and look to establish your own currency.

Posted 17 Feb 2014
pmeu

I'm all for Scotland gaining independence but it is depressing to hear that the potential leaders of Scotland would even want to have a currency union. Spend years and years whining that the powers that be set monetary policy with little regard to Scotland's needs (which I would agree is true) and their solution is to tie themselves into a currency union where their needs and requirements would have absolutely zero sway over policy. Be brave and look to establish your own currency.



Please remember that there are no leaders in Scotland.  There is one 1st class politician Salmond.

The rest are bloody useless.

He also wants to keep the pound so that when the shit hits the fan he can blame London.

He does not want real power. 
Posted 17 Feb 2014
There is lots of talk here. However since there no real answer as to what will happen in the event of a yes vote, it is all hypothetical.

Salmond's actions and rhetoric are all excellent for electioneering in Scotland. However they are building irritation in the only place that matter which is London.

As we can hypothesis, here is mine.

I would say that there will be no velvet divorce.

The rest of the UK shall do what they think is best for them and if that ****s Scotland over so be it. They just need to look at their own needs and forget about Scotland.

Quite right to. If you say to a partner however unequal **** off, then they are well entitled to turn their back on you. England has no need to really care about what the Scots say or do.

I have heard that the figure that it was likely to cost the English to do business in Scotland was to be around £500 million per annum. That is not that much money to a massive economy like England. To put it in context it is ten fighter planes (One Squadron of Typhoons which England will not need as it will not have to defend the north half of the British Isles) or half of a Type 45 Frigate, or 10 days of a Tube Strike in London.

Therefore it really is a joke.

Again England can cope with the loss of the oil and the rest of the issues. It will be painful, expensive and ultimately far better for the English, Welsh & Northern Irish.

Scotland shall go down. Yes faster than Greece.

It will take many decades before Scotland becomes wealthy again if it can due to the lazy benefit addled people that we are now.

Posted 17 Feb 2014
cziiki
Photographer
cziiki
Stibnite
What symbol you put on a piece of paper does not define a currency, the weight of the bank and the economy behind it does. The power behind the pound is the Bank of England in the same way the power behind the euro is Germany. Currency union is not about the pound it's about joint economic decisions and policy, that is simply not realistic with an independent Scotland.
True, and the nationalised (UK) Bank of England is owned by the people of the UK including all its present citizens. The Scots are now and always have been part owners of this institution. If the English state in advance they propose to attempt to withhold these assets (the legality of which has to be tested) then they also clearly retain all the debts of the same institution. This is the simple point Salmond makes. (Money is as you say not actual notes but is fundamentally debt to central banks (hence the QE of recent years) - as you say propped by perceived trust in the underlying ability of economies that use it to remain viable - unless it's a shared Bitcoin-like currency which depends on trust but is based on mathematically secure shared record keeping rather than a central authority. Hence the possibility of several nations sharing a currency.)
Posted 17 Feb 2014
Stibnite
Photographer
Stibnite
cziiki
True, and the nationalised (UK) Bank of England is owned by the people of the UK including all its present citizens. The Scots are now and always have been part owners of this institution. If the English state in advance they propose to attempt to withhold these assets (the legality of which has to be tested) then they also clearly retain all the debts of the same institution. This is the simple point Salmond makes. (Money is as you say not actual notes but is fundamentally debt to central banks (hence the QE of recent years) - as you say propped by perceived trust in the underlying ability of economies that use it to remain viable - unless it's a shared Bitcoin-like currency which depends on trust but is based on mathematically secure shared record keeping rather than a central authority. Hence the possibility of several nations sharing a currency.)
I don't get the point you are making, to retain use of the pound you would need to have a currency union with joint policy making on the economy yet what is proposed is independence to raise taxes and spend as Scotland please's you can't have it both ways. I personally have no axe to grind the scots can choose independence if that is what they wish, but to imagine the choice is not going to cost the uk as a whole millions of pounds is naive and dishonest.
Posted 17 Feb 2014
tonycsm
Photographer
tonycsm
jivago

Osborne may think that shouting 'Fag - Fag' like he was still at some toffy Public School will bully everyone into coming running. It won't! - He simply cannot say no to a curency union, becuase it is not in his gift to do that.

Sterling is a shared asset - Get over it!



No, Sterling is the currency of the United Kingdom and the countries which comprise the UK or rUK as may be the case. Once Scotland has left the UK and becomes independent, Scotland will not have the Pound Sterling as it's currency or as a crutch and it doesn't matter how much Snake Oil Salmond or his chums stamp their feet like spoiled brats to the cries of 'bully'.

The clue is in the word 'independent'!

 
Posted 17 Feb 2014
click_gotcha
Photographer
click_gotcha
tonycsm

No, Sterling is the currency of the United Kingdom and the countries which comprise the UK or rUK as may be the case. Once Scotland has left the UK and becomes independent, Scotland will not have the Pound Sterling as it's currency or as a crutch and it doesn't matter how much Snake Oil Salmond or his chums stamp their feet like spoiled brats to the cries of 'bully'.

The clue is in the word 'independent'!

 


There is a train of thought that Scotand would be better off using the £ but outwith a currency union.   We could also leave the debt behind in such a case.  We can play hard ball to if it comes to it.



Posted 17 Feb 2014
magpie1
Photographer
magpie1
This train of thought, sounds like the Flying Scotsman.

Posted 17 Feb 2014
tonycsm
Photographer
tonycsm
click_gotcha

There is a train of thought that Scotand would be better off using the £ but outwith a currency union.   We could also leave the debt behind in such a case.  We can play hard ball to if it comes to it.



Sounds like a plan - however that was covered by Osborne a couple of weeks ago when he said rUK would cover the debts if Scotland left them behind so, that boat has been missed I'm afraid.

Also try getting any form of credit from other sources after reneging on your debts as a newly independent country - it would come at a great cost if it could be found.
Posted 17 Feb 2014
click_gotcha
Photographer
click_gotcha
tonycsm

Sounds like a plan - however that was covered by Osborne a couple of weeks ago when he said rUK would cover the debts if Scotland left them behind so, that boat has been missed I'm afraid.

Also try getting any form of credit from other sources after reneging on your debts as a newly independent country - it would come at a great cost if it could be found.


I'm not sure what you mean by "that boat has been missed" but if rUK is the successor state then legally we will have no debts to renege on as the debt belongs to the UK, no -one else/  The SNP position is though that we will accept liability of a share of the debt in exchange for a ahre of the assets.

Posted 17 Feb 2014
click_gotcha
Photographer
click_gotcha
magpie1

This train of thought, sounds like the Flying Scotsman.


More like the Wall Street Journal

How Scotland Can Keep the Pound

  • By
  • Simon Constable
     

If UK chancellor George Osborne wants to come down hard on Scottish hopes of independence, he should at least get things right. The problem is he hasn’t.

This week Osborne, who holds a cabinet position roughly equivalent to Treasury Secretary, said “If Scotland walks away from the U.K., it walks away from the U.K. pound.”

If the Scots believe him, his pronouncement sounds like a scary proposition. Or it would be, if only he was correct.

“Osborne is just wrong,” says Steve Hanke, professor of economics at the Johns Hopkins University. “There is a viable option that is easy to implement.”

Hanke is referring to the idea of a currency board. In the simplest terms, Scotland would peg the new Scottish pound to Sterling one-for-one. It would be British pound, for all intents and purposes and there would be little that Osborne can do to stop it.

“Hong Kong is an example where they have managed fabulously well,” says Peter Rodriguez, professor of business at the Darden Graduate School of Business in Charlottesville, VA. Hong Kong started pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar in 1983 after a crisis.

The real challenge is to link the currency with one that has a closely related business cycle. That seems to have been where Argentina famously went wrong with its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. But with Scotland adopting the pound, that doesn’t seem to be a risk. Exports from Scotland to the rest of the United Kingdom represent 29% of Scottish GDP, according to a 2013 report to Britain’s parliament.

That said, there are some downsides:

First, Scotland would cede monetary policy to the Bank of England. But as Marc Chandler, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York points out, that may not be that big a deal. “To what extent is the Bank of Canada able to act independently of the Fed?” he asks. Not much.

A bigger issue for some would be that there would be no lender of last resort for the commercial banks, explains Nouriel Roubini, founder of Roubini Global Economics. That’s a role typically taken by the central bank to rescue stressed out financial institutions.

But if it meant banks avoided risky bets expecting the government to save them, then that might not be such a bad thing. Of course, just because Scotland could effectively keep the pound, doesn’t mean it should. That’s a bigger question.



Posted 17 Feb 2014
Edited by Love 17 Feb 2014
sirspread
Photographer
sirspread
Does it really matter because at the end of the day the scots are not going to vote for independence

Posted 17 Feb 2014
jivago
Photographer
jivago
tonycsm

No, Sterling is the currency of the United Kingdom and the countries which comprise the UK or rUK as may be the case. Once Scotland has left the UK and becomes independent, Scotland will not have the Pound Sterling as it's currency or as a crutch and it doesn't matter how much Snake Oil Salmond or his chums stamp their feet like spoiled brats to the cries of 'bully'.

The clue is in the word 'independent'!

 


I will differ. Artcle 16 of The Act of Union established a common currency between the two Countries. Who owns that asset after the Union is dissolved? - Who knows? Is there a prececdent? In dispute it could  be considered by the International Court of Justice? - A surreal proposition! Common sense would have to prevail of course. Some share of the assets and the liabilities I anticipate. A Currency Union in return for a share of the liabilties. Anyone with a brain can see the 'game of poker' at large here.

As a Rump UK taxpayer, would you be happy to shoulder Scotland's share of the current national debt? - Or would you prefer a currency Union? - One that did not impose tariffs on your businesses when they trade with Scotland! (One that may well be some 'back-door' to European free markets when the Tories isolote you from Europe?).


Posted 17 Feb 2014
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