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Cyprus bank accounts raided

Oliver Cook is off-line
18 March 2013 07:03
artistoli
Photographer
artistoli
Location
Europe
Malta


Quote from magpie1
Of course, nothing really changes in human nature, the philosopher Arthur Schoepenhaur remarked "----history always repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce." Dodgy share dealing, get rich quick schemes, sub prime borrowing, reckless government economic policies---- search for 'South Sea Bubble', its all happened before!



Indeed you are correct; it has all happened before. The problem is that I fear this cycle is rather like the cycle of war. That is that as technology develops, and as there are more people, each time it happens the effects are magnified. It gets worse and worse. The pressures, expectations, speed of communications (and so reactions/events), and sheer number of participants/victims this time around will make this crash so much worse than anything previously seen. It is clearly following the same general trajectory but the order of magnitude will be much greater.


Anthonygh is off-line
18 March 2013 08:14
anthonyh
Photographer

Location
United Kingdom
Kent


The only real answer (of sorts) is population reduction. However, the question is, where.

There is one argument that places like Africa needs to dramatically cut its birthrate as they can't feed the population it already has. There is another that points out that the average American child will consume 25 times more of the earth's resources than the average African child.

Averages are a bit misleading however...take the UK. We are an enormously wealthy country...but the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a small number of institutions and individuals.....although 'on average'...we are all doing ok.

Until we get an economic system in place that recognizes these disparities need addressing nothing will change.....but nothing will change because the established political parties only recruit and promote those that support the long established mindset....perpetual consumerism and the increasingly unequal distribution of income, wealth, and resources.


Neil Anderson is off-line
18 March 2013 10:34
stolenfaces
Photographer
stolenfaces
Location
United Kingdom
London
West London

Quote from artistoli
If you look at the actual finances and demographics over the developed world over the past fifty years something becomes very clear; the entire structure was built on sand. All of the welfare state, the infrastructure, the government spending etc. - all of it - was dependent upon perpetual and exponentially increasing growth in economies. The problem is simple; that is impossible. We live on a small rock with finite resources and have an ageing population. Further more that ageing population expect and demand more and more services. There is an illusion amongst most people. It is that 'things used to add up but they don't now'. In truth the system has never 'added up'. It has added up merely based on future projections of that perpetual and exponentially increasing growth.

To put it in a nutshell; the governments, in Europe, and across the developed world have made promise after promise that they knew they couldn't keep. They made them because the politicians at the time knew they wouldn't be the ones to deal with the consequences and they wanted people's votes. The electorates, on their part, swallowed it hook, line and sinker. Part wishful thinking and part sheer terror at facing the prospect of a future without the massive state provided benefits and infrastructure we all take for granted.

What will happen now? Well, it is quite simply impossible to ever get on top of the debt, or even approach getting it under control. The shortfall isn't going to be addressed by raising taxes a few percent here and there or cutting budgets a few percent. The shortfall is of such proportions - the unfunded liabilities so great, and people's expectations keep increasing. This is what will happen:

- in the short term governments, desperate to be seen to be 'doing something' will start raiding any wealth they can. People's savings accounts and pensions for a start (sound familiar). Then assets, like checking people's homes for gold and silver (remember the Lib Dem's idea of a jewellery tax to be enforced by officers who could enter your home without warrant?).

- budgets will keep on getting slashed. By a relatively small amount each time, but it will be continuous - 'death by a thousand cuts' if you will. Roads and basic infrastructure will deteriorate and repairs will fall further behind (sound familiar to any drivers?).

- education and health will be stripped back and back until there is pretty much just a skeleton service.

- defence will be cut until all we have is a defence force capable of internal security (that will be maintained for obvious reasons).

- people, having grown up being fed lies about what to expect, will probably not accept this and at some point mass civil disorder will engulf large areas. Many countries will see civil wars.

This is not idle speculation. If you look at the cold, hard facts and figures, it is just the logical future. I would love to believe there is a way out of the mess that will take us back to the dream that we were all sold, but there simply isn't. If anyone can come up with a viable idea to 'fix' it then they are a genius. The system isn't actually 'broken' as such - it never worked in the first place. It was always going to be a bell curve graph with a fun ride to the top and then disaster on the other side.



This all sounds very logical except that it ignores the fact that the debts are only owed to each other within the Euro-zone. Germany took a risk on accepting Greece into the Euro, (just as the bankers took their risks on lending money to people with poor credit records) so they should face up to the gamble which didn't pay off, instead of just blaming the people that no one in their right mind would have lent the money to.
Germany was speculating to make big profits in exactly the same way as the sub-prime lenders. They only lent to Greece because they (Greece) were dodgy and therefore they could ask for a high risk premium in the interest rates.

I'm not really clear why British Troops stationed in Cyprus who have chosen to be paid in Euros and keep them in a Cypriot bank are so worthy of special consideration. Presumably they made that choice because they thought the Euro was a better investment than Sterling, and until Friday they would have benefited to the tune of 7% this year, so the tax would have just left them in the same position as a colleague who had chosen to be paid in pounds.
Like any dealer he was watching for the card that is so high and wild he'll never need to deal another...


Anthonygh is off-line
18 March 2013 11:15
anthonyh
Photographer

Location
United Kingdom
Kent


I suspect UK military are paid in the currency of the country they are stationed in so they get the same salary every week...same as they would in the UK. If they were paid in pounds they would have had a 7% plus pay cut in the last year.


Neil Anderson is off-line
18 March 2013 11:16
stolenfaces
Photographer
stolenfaces
Location
United Kingdom
London
West London

Quote from anthonyh
I suspect UK military are paid in the currency of the country they are stationed in so they get the same salary every week...same as they would in the UK. If they were paid in pounds they would have had a 7% plus pay cut in the last year.



Apparently they can choose
Like any dealer he was watching for the card that is so high and wild he'll never need to deal another...


Paul Hodson is off-line
18 March 2013 11:27
mph
Photographer
mph
Location
United Kingdom
Cheshire
Crewe

Quote from stolenfaces


This all sounds very logical except that it ignores the fact that the debts are only owed to each other within the Euro-zone.




Well according to the IMF the UK owed the US 578 billion Euros last year. Have we paid that back?
Amateur - happy to do TF with models with potential and enthusiasm. Website: www.mphodson.co.uk


Neil Anderson is off-line
18 March 2013 11:58
stolenfaces
Photographer
stolenfaces
Location
United Kingdom
London
West London

Quote from mph


Well according to the IMF the UK owed the US 578 billion Euros last year. Have we paid that back?



Are we in the Euro-zone ? I haven't seen the News today, but I thought we were still using the £ Sterling in this country.
Like any dealer he was watching for the card that is so high and wild he'll never need to deal another...


Paul Hodson is off-line
18 March 2013 12:08
mph
Photographer
mph
Location
United Kingdom
Cheshire
Crewe

Quote from stolenfaces
Are we in the Euro-zone ? I haven't seen the News today, but I thought we were still using the £ Sterling in this country.




Bloody IMF eh?  Just don't get it do they?  Why don't you pop over and sort them out?  Of course they must quote their figures in Sterling - damned impudent little devils! 

Still - if it's only Euros we owe - no worries.  Come to think of it, last time I looked, the US dealt in dollars - so they probably don't want it back!
Amateur - happy to do TF with models with potential and enthusiasm. Website: www.mphodson.co.uk


Neil Anderson is off-line
18 March 2013 12:28
stolenfaces
Photographer
stolenfaces
Location
United Kingdom
London
West London

Quote from mph
Bloody IMF eh?  Just don't get it do they?  Why don't you pop over and sort them out?  Of course they must quote their figures in Sterling - damned impudent little devils! 



Still - if it's only Euros we owe - no worries.  Come to think of it, last time I looked, the US dealt in dollars - so they probably don't want it back!




The Euro-zone consists of the countries that use the Euro as their currency - The UK uses the £ Sterling and therefore is not in the Euro-zone - It's not really difficult to understand.
I think even George Osbourn has got this far in his 'Ladybird book of Economics'

Like any dealer he was watching for the card that is so high and wild he'll never need to deal another...


Paul Hodson is off-line
18 March 2013 13:11
mph
Photographer
mph
Location
United Kingdom
Cheshire
Crewe

Are you as thick as you sound or are you just being deliberately obtuse? What bloody difference does it make whether or not it is quoted in Euros or pounds or whether we look at the UK or other countries which are in the Eurozone?

Artistoli was talking about debts in "the developed world"- not merely those in the Eurozone or in the UK. It was those debts I was alluding to.

You said that "the debts" are only owed to each other in the Eurozone. Totally irrelevant to the point he was making in the first place and factually wrong as well.

Even Germany owes the US 175 billion Euros - 50,659 Euros per person.

And the US owes over a trillion dollars to the Chinese (though this only a small percentage of the total debt)

Obviously the situation is hugely complicated and any figures quoted (including those from the IMF which I have used) are pretty meaningless without understanding international finance but dismissing the problem the way you do is certainly relevant to the situation he was highlighting.

Mind you - if you don't even know the name of our Chancellor - it's not a good start is it!
Amateur - happy to do TF with models with potential and enthusiasm. Website: www.mphodson.co.uk



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